John Bicknell is a retired Marine who builds tools for reading complex systems. His company, More Cowbell Unlimited, applies process mining to the events happening around the world. Mark “Moose” McGrath and I asked him how patterns and entropy can tell you when a system is ready to change.
Mining world events
John uses the GDELT dataset, the Global Database of Events, Language and Tone. It tracks events worldwide every 15 minutes. Process mining on that stream reveals patterns in complex adaptive systems.
Entropy and overwhelm
John measures entropy in a system. Rising entropy can show when a population or its leaders are cognitively overwhelmed. He calls those moments cognitive arbitrage, when a system is most open to influence. Tracking changes in complexity lets you engage at the right moment with fewer resources.
Orientation and weak signals
For us, this is about orientation. A better read of the environment gives a decision maker more time and better options. John ties his work to Boyd’s OODA loop to sharpen situational awareness.
The applications go well beyond national security. John talks about global brand management, forestry and wetlands monitoring, and markets. Weak signals can show up before a trend is obvious. Along the way we get into jazz and the Grateful Dead.
What weak signal in your field are you watching right now?
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