Alex Krainer joined us from Monaco. Mark “Moose” McGrath read Alex’s books on trend following and commodities years ago, and they stuck with him. Alex starts from a simple premise. You can’t know the future, so you prepare to move when the market does.
Question the narrative
Alex came to markets from academia. He tells stories from the dot-com boom and the oil price shocks. Each one shows how little a forecast is worth on its own, and how much adaptability matters.
How trend following works
Trend following asks for consistency over time, through short-term losses. Alex explains price-based systems that follow movement in the market. Because the rules come from price, a trader can spread across many markets, from coffee and crude oil to Bitcoin. Rules also keep some cognitive biases out of the decision.
Famous investors and personal discipline
Alex argues that some famous investors, Warren Buffett among them, behave more like trend followers than people think. He talks about the psychology of personal investing and why everyone needs a strategy. We also get into geopolitics and machine learning for mapping trends.
For us, this is orientation in markets. Alex keeps updating his picture from what the market shows him.
This episode is not investment advice.
Which market story do you believe that you have never checked against price?
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