Most investors want comfort. Trend following asks them to sit with discomfort. Jerry Parker and Mike Melissinos joined Mark “Moose” McGrath and me to map trend following onto John Boyd’s real OODA loop.
Mark spent a long career in asset management, and he used Boyd every day to teach orientation to the people he worked with. That path led him to trend following.
The Turtle culture
Jerry traces the original Turtle Trader training. It rewarded doing the right thing even while losing in the short term. He says almost no client environment tolerates that.
Risk and feelings
Mike explains why volatility management often covers for managing feelings. He defines risk as the chance of permanent loss, and that definition changes everything from position sizing to patience. The rules are easy to say: cut losses fast and let winners run. Following them is the hard part.
Orientation and the payoff
We talk about orientation, how what you believe shapes what you see in a market. Jerry and Mike explain why a 40 percent win rate can still compound when the payoffs catch the outliers. We also cover nonconformity, cultural integrity in trading and complexity theory.
This episode is not investment advice.
What rule would you keep following through a losing streak?
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https://youtube.com/@nowayoutpodcast
Written by Ponch Rivera with AI assistance in production. The full conversation is in the player below.